[karosyrup713]

The problem is that the OP was incorrect in his assertion that Marilyn vos Savant's solution was incorrect. It is better to change your door selection for the reasons I've outlined in previous posts. That is:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.

I don't mind what parallels you draw between the mathematical problem and other situations, however you should probably know the correct solution to the Monty Hall problem so you don't draw any incorrect conclusions.