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karosyrup713 karosyrup713 is offline
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked - 09-22-2013, 01:32 PM

Na, it's better to switch.

When you choose from the three doors:
Chance you're right (door you picked): 1/3
Chance you're wrong (one of the two other doors): 2/3

Then one of the other doors is opened to reveal nothing/a goat/whatever.
Those original probabilities don't change:
Chance you're right (door you picked): 1/3
Chance you're wrong (now just the other door): 2/3

There's always a 2/3 chance that you picked the wrong door to start with.

Simple really.

I imagine you're a bit confused because there's only three doors. Imagine the same gameshow where there's a million doors, one has a car. You randomly pick one (one in a million chance of getting it right). Then the host opens 999,998 doors to reveal nothing. Are you going to change your pick to that other door that he hasn't opened? Of course you are, you only had a one in a million chance of getting it right in the first place, it's near certain the car's behind that other door.
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